There is no doubt that mobile retargeting will be a prominent force in the mobile advertising industry for years to come, however it is still very much in Beta stage of development. No doubt CTRs will increase through relevancy (in the same way as personalised retargeting and search retargeting), and subsequently ROI should be affected in a positive way for advertisers.
So you ask, why the slow progess in developing mobile retargeting? Well because it is extremely hard.. Apple iPhone and iPad browsers block third party cookies by default, creating a massive blind spot for advertisers.
To make mobile retargeting work on phones cookies alone are not the answer. It seems as though there are still quite a few holes in the system, preventing truly accurate retargeting, but instead recognising device signatures and network ids as to where the device is getting online. Websites and app publishers are beginning to aggregate data on an anonymous level, similar to how we aggregate our search intent data here at Forward. However this mobile data is based on more of a device level, rather than personal information. Some early providers are making assumptions that a android device that opens a website on their phone and then an adroid device in the same wireless zone opens an app that this is the same user.
It is fair to say that this grey area should become a little clearer over the next two years, and with RTB sure to be a feature, the industry will no doubt expand when its ready with the US leading the way.