Onsite Search Data can Predict FMCG Sales at a Brand and Category Level, According to new Captify and Circana Research
A 10% lift in onsite search activity has the potential to generate a 5% increase in sales
New research finds that a 10% lift in onsite search activity can generate a 5% increase in sales for FMCG brands.
The Search-to-Sales Connection, published by Captify, the largest holder of onsite search data outside the walled gardens, and Circana, which helps almost 7,000 of the world’s leading brands and retailers understand sales smarter and unlock business growth, identifies a direct correlation between search volume and sales trends.
The report shows that understanding this link between search and sales can help marketers better predict future trends, measure marketing impact, and assist them in making smart strategic decisions at a time when many traditional data sources have become obsolete, siloed or inaccurate.
The report is based on 12 months of onsite search data and sales data covering the whole of 2023 for the UK’s pet food category – worth nearly £2.7bn a year, according to Circana retail data. Sales of two-thirds (65.5%) of key pet food brands were analysed, covering five out of the top six brand owners in the category, including marquee brands such as Butcher’s as well as a range of smaller, challenger brands. Other brands assessed included Harringtons and Wagg.
Statistical analysis found a clear connection between the volume and share of search and sales, with an offset in the correlation that highlights the predictive nature of onsite search data. At a broad category level, it found that a 10% lift in onsite search activity across the category has the potential to generate a 5% increase in sales.
The study also highlights the impact at a brand level. The largest brands demonstrated the strongest correlation and the narrowest window of prediction, with the correlating lift in sales typically coming two weeks after seeing a lift in search. Challenger brands such as Wagg also followed the overall ‘2:1’ relationship. However, due to their smaller brand presence, it took up to two months for increased brand awareness, as reflected through search interest, to translate into sales.
“Our research demonstrates a strong correlation between consumer search behaviour and subsequent sales, revealing a clear and predictive relationship at both the brand and category levels,” said Sam Coates, Head of UK Insight, Captify. “These insights provide a new level of understanding of how onsite search behaviour directly impacts business performance, helping marketers to better predict trends, inform product launches, and enhance the effectiveness of their media and retail activations.”
The study combined Captify’s Search Intelligence, which collects billions of onsite search signals from across the open web, and Circana’s online and offline sales data from some of the UK’s largest retailers in the pet food category over a 12-month period.
While previous research has primarily focused on high-consideration categories such as automotive and consumer tech, Captify and Circana sought to broaden these insights by exploring their application in faster-moving categories. The pet food category is particularly well-suited for this analysis, given its high household penetration (60% of UK households), low seasonality and strong economic resilience – key factors that provide greater confidence in linking onsite search behaviour to sales outcomes.
“Joining forces with Captify meant that we could explore how earlier signals on the consumer purchase cycle correlate with actual sales. What we’ve found is that while search and sales trends reflect each other across most brands and categories, smaller brands require more of a lead time to demonstrate the same trends,” said Alexandre Dietrich, EMEA Lift Program Director at Circana. “As such, they need to utilise strategies that help with brand awareness and building trust with their target audience so they can convert interest into sales. We can’t wait to start measuring optimised strategies which leveraged search and intent data to supercharge the sales impact.”
For more information or to download the report, please visit The Search-to-Sales Connection Report.
About Captify
As the largest holder of onsite search data outside the walled gardens, Captify empowers brands to understand consumer interests, motivations and mindsets in real-time through search signals from over 3 million websites globally. Search behaviour provides a view into consumer intent, which is made actionable through machine learning technology. Captify’s Search Intelligence fuels pre-campaign strategy and audience development, flexible programmatic activation, and unique measurement and insights for the world’s biggest brands.
About Circana
Circana helps advertisers, retailers and their agencies better plan, target, measure and optimize their media investments across channels and industries. Our media expertise and solutions are built on one of the industry’s largest, global, purchase-based data sets providing the most accurate and granular audiences, optimization, and measurement insights to deliver superior business results.
